Economic Outlook Breakfast

Economic Outlook 2026

RIN, NAB and Mackay Regional Council

Economic Outlook 2026: Global Headlines, Local Impact

Thank you to everyone who joined us at Rydges Mackay for a highly engaging and timely Economic Outlook breakfast. With global events shifting rapidly, it was a valuable opportunity for regional business leaders to step back from the headlines and understand the deeper economic forces shaping the year ahead.

Event RecapRydges MackayPresented with NAB & Mackay Regional Council

Event overview

It was a fantastic morning bringing together business, industry and regional leaders to unpack the global economic forces shaping our region. With geopolitical tensions escalating and global uncertainty dominating headlines, the session provided valuable insight into how these developments translate into real economic impacts for Australia and regional economies like Mackay.

The discussion reinforced just how quickly conditions can shift in the global economy, and why understanding the broader context is critical for confident business planning and decision-making.

Key insights from the briefing

  • Global economic growth is expected to remain close to its recent historical average
  • However, escalating conflict in the Middle East could weigh on global growth depending on how long tensions persist and whether energy trade stabilises
  • Geopolitical risks remain elevated including US trade policy, China's use of export controls, and tensions around Taiwan and the South China Sea
  • Australia’s economic growth is forecast to track around 1.75% through 2026, slightly below its long-term trend
  • The unemployment rate is expected to rise to around 4.75%
  • Underlying inflation is expected to remain above 3% for much of the year before gradually easing
  • The Reserve Bank cash rate is expected to rise to around 4.35% before easing later in 2027

Speaker

Tony Kelly
Head of International Economics, NAB

Tony Kelly leads NAB’s international economic analysis, providing forecasts and insight on global economies and central banks. Prior to joining NAB in 2011, he spent two decades across Commonwealth and Victorian Treasury departments working in macroeconomic forecasting, revenue analysis and budget strategy.

His presentation helped attendees move beyond the headlines and better understand the underlying economic forces shaping markets, investment confidence and the outlook for Australia.

Antony Kelly

Presentation slides

For those who attended, or anyone interested in exploring the analysis in more detail, Tony's presentation slides are available below.

Event photos

Photos from the morning are available to view and download below.

Thank you

Thank you to our partners National Australia Bank and Mackay Regional Council for supporting this important regional conversation, and to everyone who joined us for the discussion.

Events like this help ensure our regional business community stays informed, prepared and confident in navigating an increasingly complex global economic environment.

Resource Industry Network is the largest membership organisation in the Mackay Isaac Whitsunday and Bowen Basin region, supporting businesses across mining, manufacturing, engineering and METS.